Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Alvin KamaraRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Saints vs. Bears
Right now, Alvin Kamara’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 59.5 (-120) after it opened @ 60.5 (-110).
Pros
- With a 9.5-point advantage, the Saints are a massive favorite in this week’s contest, indicating much more of a reliance on running than their typical game plan.
- The 2nd-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Saints this year (a staggering 65.5 per game on average).
- In this game, Alvin Kamara is forecasted by the projections to secure a spot in the 87th percentile when it comes to RBs with 15.3 rush attempts.
- Out of all running backs, Alvin Kamara grades out in the 92nd percentile for rush attempts this year, accounting for 60.5% of the workload in his offense’s ground game.
- Alvin Kamara has averaged 67.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest figures in football when it comes to RBs (89th percentile).
Cons
- The leading projections forecast this game to have the 4th-fewest plays run among all games this week at 128.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop.
- The Bears defense boasts the best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, allowing just 3.44 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).
- The Bears safeties profile as the 3rd-best group of safeties in the league this year with their run defense.
Projection
THE BLITZ
61
Rushing Yards
61
Rushing Yards
