Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Zay FlowersReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Ravens vs. Seahawks
Right now, Zay Flowers’s receiving yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Ravens have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 3.2% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 6th-most in football.
- Zay Flowers has run a route on 92.8% of his offense’s passing plays this year, placing him in the 91st percentile when it comes to wideouts.
- The leading projections forecast Zay Flowers to accrue 7.6 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 82nd percentile among wide receivers.
- With a stellar 57.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (77th percentile) this year, Zay Flowers stands as one of the leading wide receivers in the game in the league.
Cons
- The Ravens are a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- The model projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 2nd-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 50.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Right now, the 2nd-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Baltimore Ravens.
- The Seahawks pass defense has excelled when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.30 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-fewest in the league.
- The Seattle cornerbacks profile as the 4th-best CB corps in football this year in pass coverage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
57
Receiving Yards
57
Receiving Yards
