Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Travis KelceReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Chiefs vs. Dolphins
Right now, Travis Kelce’s receiving yards prop is set at 79.5 yards (-130/-105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 79.5 (-130) after it opened @ 78.5 (-115).
Pros
- The predictive model expects the Chiefs as the most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 68.4% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to have 130.1 total plays called: the 5th-most out of all the games this week.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Travis Kelce profiles as one of the best pass-catching TEs this year, averaging an exceptional 82.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 100th percentile.
- This year, the deficient Miami Dolphins defense has surrendered a whopping 56.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing TEs: the 6th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- Travis Kelce’s 72.1% Route Participation Rate this year shows a meaningful reduction in his passing attack usage over last year’s 83.1% figure.
- When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Miami’s unit has been outstanding this year, grading out as the best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
93
Receiving Yards
93
Receiving Yards
