Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Wednesday 11/1)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, MLBdream provides his picks. 

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks 

Rangers -110 @ Diamondbacks -110 – Total 8.5 (BetMGM)

The Rangers scoring 10 runs in the first three innings couldn’t have been any worse for our Andrew Heaney Under 9.5 Outs bet in Tuesday’s Game 4. It’s also a little tilting to have written up the only loss on my card on a 3-1 night. I didn’t expect Heaney to go five innings, even in a blowout — who knows how it would have played out in a close game. The southpaw allowed six baserunners, but the Rangers offense gave Bruce Bochy and his staff plenty of room for error. The Rangers used seven pitchers in a blowout win, but they did manage to save a couple of their high-leverage arms. We’re heading back to the pitching prop market for Game 5.

Nathan Eovaldi looks to tie an MLB record with his fifth victory in a single postseason. His four wins puts him behind only Randy Johnson, Stephen Strasburg and Francisco Rodríguez. The righty is coming off his worst postseason start, as he allowed five earned runs in 4.2 innings with eight punchouts in Game 1 of the World Series. Despite allowing three runs in the first, Eovaldi’s swing-and-miss stuff was still great in that game. He posted a 38% Whiff% overall, with 11 swings-and-misses on his splitter alone, along with a 70% zone-contact rate (image below via Baseball Savant). 

Eovaldi posted a 22.9% K% in the regular season – that has risen to 28.6% in 30.2 postseason innings. The 33-year-old has also experienced an increase in his swinging-strike-percentage at 14.7%, up from 11.5% in the regular season.

The Diamondbacks have been about average at the dish, posting a 101 wRC+, up from 97 in the regular season. Arizona has also increased their strikeout percentage this postseason, as it sits at 24.1% (20.4% in the regular season). The team’s swinging-strike percentage has also seen a bump in the playoffs at 11.2%, up from 9.3% in the regular season. While the Arizona lineup doesn’t include many high-strikeout batters — except for Evan Longoria — most of their lineup is right around league average in strikeout rate. 

Brian Knight is working the plate Wednesday, and while he’s a fairly neutral umpire, he should give us a slight bump in the strikeout department. Eovaldi has gone over both the strikeout prop and outs prop in four of five games this postseason. Bochy would love to get six-plus innings out of Eovaldi, allowing the Hall of Fame manager to go straight to his most-trusted high leverage arms. Frank Brank’s MLB Model agrees with the outs prop bet; as Frank projects Eovaldi for 16.56 outs. Frank is on market as far the punchouts go, as he projects Eovaldi for 4.6 K’s. Be sure to check the FTN Prop Shop to ensure you’re betting the best number on the board.

Bets

Nathan Eovaldi Over 4.5 K’s (-115, BetMGM) 
Nathan Eovaldi Over 15.5 Outs (-113, Caesars)