Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Terry McLaurinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Patriots vs. Commanders
Right now, Terry McLaurin’s receiving yards prop is set at 62.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet the OVER up to 62.5 (+100) after it opened @ 59.5 (-115).
Pros
- The predictive model expects the Washington Commanders offensive gameplan to lean 13.9% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy now calling the plays.
- The predictive model expects the Commanders as the 3rd-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 64.9% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 9th-most in football.
- The predictive model expects Terry McLaurin to total 8.8 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 91st percentile when it comes to wideouts.
- Terry McLaurin has compiled a massive 92.0 air yards per game this year: 87th percentile among wideouts.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Commanders to run the 8th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- Terry McLaurin’s pass-catching effectiveness has tailed off this year, compiling a mere 8.27 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 9.90 mark last year.
- Terry McLaurin’s 3.40 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season shows a noteworthy decline in his effectiveness in space over last season’s 5.8% rate.
- The Patriots pass defense has displayed strong efficiency vs. WRs this year, conceding 7.64 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-fewest in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
72
Receiving Yards
72
Receiving Yards
