Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Stefon Diggs from EV Insight

Stefon DiggsReceiving Yards

Right now, Stefon Diggs’s receiving yards prop is set at 85.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 85.5 (-110) after it opened @ 89.5 (-110).

Pros

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills to pass on 63.4% of their downs: the 5th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
The projections expect Stefon Diggs to garner 11.2 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile among wideouts.
After accumulating 104.0 air yards per game last year, Stefon Diggs has seen marked improvement this year, currently boasting 127.0 per game.
Stefon Diggs’s 79.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 65.9.
The Buffalo offensive line grades out as the 3rd-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Cons

The predictive model expects the Bills to run the 2nd-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 60.5 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Cincinnati Bengals, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 33.3 per game) this year.
Stefon Diggs’s 2.92 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season shows a material decrease in his effectiveness in picking up extra yardage over last season’s 4.1% rate.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has surrendered the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (60.7%) vs. wideouts this year (60.7%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
102
Receiving Yards