NFL

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November 1, 2023

Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Rashee Rice from EV Insight

FTN Staff

Rashee RiceReceiving Yards

Right now, Rashee Rice’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 45.5 (-110) after it opened @ 42.5 (-114).

Pros

The predictive model expects the Chiefs as the most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 68.4% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to have 130.1 total plays called: the 5th-most out of all the games this week.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
With a terrific 79.2% Adjusted Catch Rate (95th percentile) this year, Rashee Rice has been as one of the most sure-handed receivers in football among wide receivers.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has allowed the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (71.9%) versus wideouts this year (71.9%).

Cons

This year, the stout Miami Dolphins pass defense has yielded the 8th-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing wideouts: a mere 3.7 YAC.
When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Miami’s unit has been outstanding this year, grading out as the best in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards