Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Nico CollinsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Texans vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Nico Collins’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-115/-113).
The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (-115) after it opened @ 57.5 (-117).
Pros
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to have 131.3 total plays run: the 2nd-most among all games this week.
- The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 6th-most in football.
- The projections expect Nico Collins to accumulate 7.9 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 84th percentile among WRs.
- Nico Collins’s 79.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season signifies an impressive growth in his receiving ability over last season’s 48.0 figure.
Cons
- The Houston Texans have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The model projects the Texans to be the 8th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 55.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Projection
THE BLITZ
72
Receiving Yards
72
Receiving Yards
