Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mike EvansReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Texans vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Mike Evans’s receiving yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the OVER up to 56.5 (-110) after it opened @ 54.5 (-115).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 8th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 61.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are predicted by the model to call 65.4 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- The predictive model expects Mike Evans to notch 8.3 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 86th percentile among wide receivers.
- As it relates to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL this year.
Cons
- The model projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive blueprint to lean 3.9% more towards the rushing attack than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.
- The 9th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Buccaneers this year (just 56.7 per game on average).
- Mike Evans has gone out for fewer passes this season (77.1% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last season (89.6%).
- Mike Evans has compiled substantially fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (62.0) this year than he did last year (72.0).
- The Texans pass defense has performed very well when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.64 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-fewest in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
69
Receiving Yards
69
Receiving Yards
