Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Michael PittmanReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Panthers vs. Colts
Right now, Michael Pittman’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (-110) after it opened @ 58.5 (-110).
Pros
- The predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts to run the most total plays on the slate this week with 66.7 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
- The 8th-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Indianapolis Colts this year (a colossal 61.9 per game on average).
- Michael Pittman has run a route on 98.3% of his offense’s dropbacks this year, putting him in the 99th percentile when it comes to WRs.
- The projections expect Michael Pittman to earn 9.3 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to WRs.
- With a fantastic 66.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (85th percentile) this year, Michael Pittman rates as one of the leading WRs in the NFL in football.
Cons
- The projections expect the Indianapolis Colts offensive gameplan to tilt 1.0% more towards the ground game than it did last year (adjusted for context) with head coach Shane Steichen now calling the plays.
- The projections expect the Indianapolis Colts as the 5th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 55.3% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 29.6 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the NFL.
- The Carolina Panthers defense has surrendered the 4th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 126.0) versus WRs this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
70
Receiving Yards
70
Receiving Yards
