Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Michael MayerReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Raiders vs. Giants
Right now, Michael Mayer’s receiving yards prop is set at 21.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.
- When talking about protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Raiders profiles as the best in the league this year.
- Michael Mayer comes in as one of the most effective pass-catchers in the league among tight ends, averaging a stellar 8.09 adjusted yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 76th percentile.
- With an exceptional 6.18 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (79th percentile) this year, Michael Mayer stands as one of the leading TEs in the pass game in the NFL in picking up extra yardage.
- This year, the feeble Giants defense has been torched for the 2nd-most yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing TEs: a colossal 8.00 YAC.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 58.2% pass rate.
- Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Las Vegas Raiders are forecasted by the predictive model to run only 60.4 offensive plays in this contest: the fewest on the slate this week.
- The smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Raiders this year (a lowly 52.9 per game on average).
- Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Giants, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 33.2 per game) this year.
- Michael Mayer checks in as one of the most unreliable receivers in the league among TEs, catching just 63.2% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 16th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
27
Receiving Yards
27
Receiving Yards
