Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Marquise BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Browns vs. Cardinals
Right now, Marquise Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (-118/-118).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 47.5 (-118) after it opened @ 47.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Arizona Cardinals may lean on the pass less this week (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to start backup quarterback Clayton Tune.
- The Cardinals are a big 13.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- With a top-tier 92.9% Route Participation Rate (93rd percentile) this year, Marquise Brown stands as one of the wide receivers with the biggest workloads in football.
- In this week’s contest, Marquise Brown is predicted by our trusted projection set to find himself in the 88th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 8.5 targets.
- When it comes to air yards, Marquise Brown ranks in the towering 91st percentile among wide receivers this year, averaging a staggering 102.0 per game.
Cons
- The Arizona Cardinals feature a new play-caller this year in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 6.0% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- Right now, the 3rd-least pass-focused offense in football (55.3% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Arizona Cardinals.
- The leading projections forecast the Cardinals to run the 6th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams teams have been wary to rely on the passing game too much against the Browns, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 29.0 per game) this year.
- Marquise Brown’s 56.8% Adjusted Catch Rate this season represents a remarkable regression in his receiving proficiency over last season’s 62.8% figure.
Projection
THE BLITZ
52
Receiving Yards
52
Receiving Yards
