Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Durham SmytheReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Chiefs vs. Dolphins
Right now, Durham Smythe’s receiving yards prop is set at 10.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 10.5 (-115) after it opened @ 10.5 (-110).
Pros
- The projections expect the Dolphins to be the 4th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 63.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Durham Smythe has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (74.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (27.1%).
- Durham Smythe has accumulated quite a few more air yards this season (15.0 per game) than he did last season (5.0 per game).
- Durham Smythe has put up substantially more adjusted receiving yards per game (26.0) this season than he did last season (11.0).
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Dolphins offense to be the 4th-most sluggish paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 28.74 seconds per play.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 4th-fewest in the league.
- As it relates to linebackers getting after the quarterback, Kansas City’s collection of LBs has been excellent this year, ranking as the 4th-best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
17
Receiving Yards
17
Receiving Yards
