Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Durham Smythe from EV Insight

Durham SmytheReceiving Yards

Right now, Durham Smythe’s receiving yards prop is set at 10.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 10.5 (-115) after it opened @ 10.5 (-110).

Pros

The projections expect the Dolphins to be the 4th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 63.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Durham Smythe has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (74.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (27.1%).
Durham Smythe has accumulated quite a few more air yards this season (15.0 per game) than he did last season (5.0 per game).
Durham Smythe has put up substantially more adjusted receiving yards per game (26.0) this season than he did last season (11.0).

Cons

The leading projections forecast the Dolphins offense to be the 4th-most sluggish paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 28.74 seconds per play.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 4th-fewest in the league.
As it relates to linebackers getting after the quarterback, Kansas City’s collection of LBs has been excellent this year, ranking as the 4th-best in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
17
Receiving Yards