Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mark AndrewsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Ravens vs. Seahawks
Right now, Mark Andrews’s receiving yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Ravens have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 3.2% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 6th-most in football.
- In this week’s contest, Mark Andrews is anticipated by the projections to finish in the 96th percentile among tight ends with 6.6 targets.
- The Baltimore Ravens O-line grades out as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
- Mark Andrews checks in as one of the leading tight ends in the pass game this year, averaging an exceptional 60.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 99th percentile.
Cons
- The Ravens are a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- The model projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 2nd-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 50.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Right now, the 2nd-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Baltimore Ravens.
- After accumulating 79.0 air yards per game last season, Mark Andrews has produced significantly fewer this season, currently boasting 53.0 per game.
- With a RATE1-RATE2 point drop-off in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive volume) from last season to this one, Mark Andrews has been used much less in his offense’s passing offense.
Projection
THE BLITZ
55
Receiving Yards
55
Receiving Yards
