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Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Luke Musgrave from EV Insight

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Luke Musgrave

Luke MusgraveReceiving Yards

Player Props – Week 9

Packers vs. Rams

Right now, Luke Musgrave’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (+110/-143).
The public has bet the OVER up to 29.5 (+110) after it opened @ 27.5 (-113).

Pros

  • The Packers rank as the 9th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) this year with a 63.5% pass rate.
  • The leading projections forecast Luke Musgrave to accrue 4.6 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 82nd percentile among tight ends.
  • With a top-tier 13.8% Target Share (82nd percentile) this year, Luke Musgrave has been among the tight ends with the most usage in the league.
  • As it relates to air yards, Luke Musgrave ranks in the towering 82nd percentile among tight ends this year, accruing an astounding 28.0 per game.
  • This year, the feeble Los Angeles Rams defense has conceded a whopping 64.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends: the worst in the NFL.
Cons

  • A running game script is suggested by the Packers being a 3.5-point favorite in this game.
  • Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Packers are predicted by the projections to call only 62.0 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-lowest number on the slate this week.
  • The 6th-lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Green Bay Packers this year (just 53.9 per game on average).

Projection
THE BLITZ
27
Receiving Yards

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