Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The college basketball season is less than three weeks away, and here at FTN Bets we have you covered for what promises to be another thrilling year of upsets and incredible finishes. I will be taking you around the country with a betting preview of the major conferences. I recap the betting trends from last season, list projected starters, preview the season, identify a key player, and reveal how I’m backing or fading each team.
Let’s continue our preview with the SEC. Always one of my favorite conferences, the SEC has grown to be one of the most competitive conferences from top to bottom. While Kentucky has the national name-brand recognition, teams such as Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn and Florida also combine massive fan bases and sustained success. There are 14 teams in the SEC, and all teams are competitive on a nightly basis. The SEC is currently ranked as the second-best overall conference in preseason ranking by KenPom. It is an exciting conference, with elite players and fantastic coaches.
Let’s continue with our betting preview for the Missouri Tigers.
2023-2024 Missouri Tigers Betting Preview
Conference: SEC
Head Coach: Dennis Gates (2nd season)
2022-2023 Record: 25-10 (11-7)
ATS: 17-17-1
O/U: 18-17
Projected Starters: G Nick Honor; G Sean East; G John Tonje; F Noah Carter; C Connor Vanover
It was a fantastic first season at Missouri for Dennis Gates, who took over the head coaching ranks from Cuonzo Martin. Gates came from Cleveland State, where he produced a 31-10 record in the Horizon over his final two seasons. Gates’ teams always excelled at creating turnovers and finished sixth in the nation in defensive turnover percentage per KenPom. The Tigers will need to replace a ton of production, losing their top four scorers and three starters from last year’s team. Gates will lean on his experienced backcourt in Nick Honor and Sean East, both of which are fifth-year guards. Gates brought in two lights-out shooters in Caleb Grill (Iowa State) and John Tonje (Colorado State) and filled the void in the middle with 7-foot-5 Connor Vanover.
Key Player: Caleb Grill
The enigmatic Grill was dismissed from Iowa State last season for failing to meet program expectations. He was a 22-game starter and superb 3PT shooter that opened the floor for the Cyclones offensive movement. His has the largest variance of any Missouri player, with seven 3PM against UNC and 8 3PM against Texas Tech. Shooting was a critical part of Missouri’s success last season, ranking first in 3P accuracy (36%) against SEC competition.
Projection: We should have learned our lesson with doubting Gates last season, when the Tigers took a preseason projection of 11th and finished tied for fourth, with statement wins such as a 28-point home victory over Kansas, a 22-point neutral-court win over Illinois, and a 17-point home blowout of Iowa State. The Tigers are projected ninth in the SEC this season, but their veteran backcourt and lights out shooting make them a troubling matchup against the SEC’s elite. My best guess? Gates outkicks his coverage yet again with a better-than-expected season.
How I’m Betting Missouri: The Tigers were 9-6 in the nonconference, but only 5-9-1 as a home favorite. Their huge home wins over Kansas and Iowa State came as home underdogs. In fact, they were only 2-6 as home favorites from last December until the end of the season, failing to cover their last four matchups. Tigers as a home dog are very live, but I’m probably fading them in those situations that they lay points in a tough SEC conference.
