Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyler Conklin from EV Insight

Tyler ConklinReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyler Conklin’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-115/-119).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 25.5 (-119) after it opened @ 26.5 (-119).

Pros

The Jets will be forced to utilize backup QB Zach Wilson in this week’s game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to have 130.6 plays on offense run: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing teams to attempt the 4th-most passes in football (39.7 per game) this year.
With an outstanding 30.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (75th percentile) this year, Tyler Conklin rates among the leading tight ends in the pass game in the NFL.

Cons

Our trusted projections expect the New York Jets to be the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 58.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Jets this year (a measly 52.9 per game on average).
After accumulating 38.0 air yards per game last year, Tyler Conklin has been a disappointment this year, currently pacing 28.0 per game.
In regards to pass-blocking (and the significance it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Jets ranks as the worst in the NFL this year.
This year, the formidable Chargers pass defense has given up the 3rd-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing tight ends: a paltry 3.7 YAC.

Projection

THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards