Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Logan ThomasReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Patriots vs. Commanders
Right now, Logan Thomas’s receiving yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-131/-104).
The public has bet the OVER up to 35.5 (-131) after it opened @ 33.5 (-113).
Pros
- The predictive model expects the Washington Commanders offensive gameplan to lean 13.9% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy now calling the plays.
- The predictive model expects the Commanders as the 3rd-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 64.9% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 9th-most in football.
- In this contest, Logan Thomas is anticipated by our trusted projection set to finish in the 93rd percentile when it comes to TEs with 6.1 targets.
- Logan Thomas has accrued significantly more adjusted receiving yards per game (40.0) this season than he did last season (25.0).
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Commanders to run the 8th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
Projection
THE BLITZ
39
Receiving Yards
39
Receiving Yards
