NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Kyle PittsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Falcons vs. Vikings
Right now, Kyle Pitts’s receiving yards prop is set at 42.5 yards (-115/-115).
Pros
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is predicted by our trusted projection set to see 131.2 plays on offense run: the 3rd-highest number on the slate this week.
- The 7th-most plays in football have been run by the Falcons this year (a whopping 62.0 per game on average).
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- The leading projections forecast Kyle Pitts to total 6.3 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile among tight ends.
- Kyle Pitts has been one of the leading TEs in the pass game this year, averaging a fantastic 38.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 85th percentile.
Cons
- A running game script is indicated by the Falcons being a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s contest.
- Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Atlanta Falcons to pass on 53.4% of their plays: the 4th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
- After averaging 77.0 air yards per game last year, Kyle Pitts has gotten worse this year, now pacing 66.0 per game.
- Kyle Pitts’s 2.71 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year illustrates a remarkable regression in his effectiveness in space over last year’s 6.6% figure.
- This year, the imposing Minnesota Vikings defense has surrendered a measly 36.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing TEs: the 3rd-fewest in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
47
Receiving Yards
47
Receiving Yards
