Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The college basketball season is less than three weeks away, and here at FTN Bets we have you covered for what promises to be another thrilling year of upsets and incredible finishes. I will be taking you around the country with a betting preview of the major conferences. I recap the betting trends from last season, list projected starters, preview the season, identify a key player, and reveal how I’m backing or fading each team.
Let’s continue our preview with the SEC. Always one of my favorite conferences, the SEC has grown to be one of the most competitive conferences from top to bottom. While Kentucky has the national name-brand recognition, teams such as Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn and Florida also combine massive fan bases and sustained success. There are 14 teams in the SEC, and all teams are competitive on a nightly basis. The SEC is currently ranked as the second-best overall conference in preseason ranking by KenPom. It is an exciting conference, with elite players and fantastic coaches.
Let’s continue our betting previews with the Alabama Crimson Tide.
2023-2024 Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Preview
Conference: SEC
Head Coach: Nate Oats (5th season)
2022-2023 Record: 31-6 (16-2)
ATS: 20-16-1
O/U: 16-20-1
Projected Starters: G Mark Sears; G Aaron Estrada; G Rylan Griffen; F Grant Nelson; C Nick Pringle
Nate Oats has done a wonderful job entering his fifth season at Alabama. He has two SEC regular season titles, two SEC Conference Tournament titles and two Sweet 16 appearances. The Crimson Tide’s mission is clear: Push the pace and shoot a ton of threes. However, this will be a huge challenge for Oats, as he loses eight of his top 10 scorers, and three of the four recruits from last season. Alabama does return Mark Sears (12.5 PPG) and Rylan Griffen (5.9 PPG), but it is really hoping for a big transfer impact from Aaron Estrada (Hofstra) and Grant Nelson (North Dakota State).
Key Player: Grant Nelson
While SEC rival Arkansas and Eric Musselman dominate the transfer portal each season, Nate Oats and the Crimson Tide also find success each year as well. Grant Nelson arrives in Alabama this season with a deluge of Summit league accolades and accomplishments. Nelson will rebound the ball, shoot it from deep, and protect the rim from the weak side. If he can defend without fouling, Alabama will have added a critical piece.
Projection: It is assumed Alabama will always be among the SEC’s upper echelon because of their success under Oats, but I have serious concerns. I’ve watched Aaron Estrada’s play ever since high school (here in New Jersey), and I have questions on his effectiveness at this level. He did play one season at Oregon, but only played in nine games. Nelson was a great player in the Summit League, but this is a huge increase in competition. Alabama has no rim protector after losing Charles Bediako, who surprisingly left for the NBA. Oats’ team has been able to overcome defenses lapses with superb offense and rebounding, but does this team have the talent to replicate that success?
How I’m Betting Alabama: This team is not nearly as talented as last year’s roster, and I project them to take a huge step back on defense. They have some tricky early-season home games against Morehead State and Indiana State, before a rough two week stretch against Ohio State in the Emerald Coast Classic, Purdue (in Canada), at Creighton, and Arizona (in Phoenix). I’m down on the Crimson Tide this year and will be fading Alabama as well as some early-season overs because of their questionable defense and fast-paced offense style.
