NBA Best Bets of the Day (11/3)

Welcome to Hoops with Noops. The In-Season Tournament is here!!! OK, that probably wasn’t worth one exclamation point, let alone three, but I’ll trying to drum up some excitement. Yes, it will never matter as much as winning a championship or maybe even making the NBA Finals, but it’s nice to see the league try something to make the regular season more interesting.

For those who haven’t already heard about the format, teams are put into six groups and some of their early-season matchups are In-Season Tournament games. The winners of each group as well as two wild card teams advance to the knockout stage, which also count as regular season games. The In-Season Tournament final four will be played in Las Vegas, with the championship game as an 83^rd game for those two teams and a shot at $500,000 for each player on the winning team.

For reference, the minimum salary in the NBA is around $2,000,000, and the highest contract (which belongs to Jaylen Brown) pays over $500,000 per game. So, it’s hard to know whether players with big contracts will care as much, but it is a nice incentive for non-stars. Overall, there’s a chance we see teams treat these games more seriously than they normally would a game in November and December which is really a win for everyone. Let’s get to the night’s slate with projections, thoughts and bets for each game. Enjoy, and be sure to check out the video edition as well.

NBA Best Bets for Friday

Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers

Current Line – Cavaliers -3, 225.5
My Projection – Cavaliers 114, Pacers 112
Key Injuries – Jarrett Allen, Darius Garland and Tyrese Haliburton are questionable.

The injury report makes this game a difficult one to project. Central Division rivals play in Indiana and both could be without their starting point guards. Darius Garland has missed the last few games and Tyrese Haliburton rested last game, so being questionable may be a good sign. Haliburton is much more important to the Pacers than Garland is to the Cavaliers. Cleveland still has Donovan Mitchell while Indiana lacks another good offensive creator. If both play, it should be a fun game and I expect the market to move closer to Cleveland -1. The other consideration is Jarret Allen who makes the Cavaliers defense much better with his rim protection. Until we know what’s happening, we can’t wager on the full game spread or total, but there is a prop I am betting now. Myles Turner has had a nice start to the season and I expect to score more points than expected of him. If Haliburton plays, he’ll have the benefit of easier shots thanks to better playmaking and less attention from the defense. If Haliburton is out, then Turner will see an increase in usage. Either way, 14.5 points is a few too low, so I’m going to play over that number and add a small wager on 20+ points.

Bets

Myles Turner Over 14.5 Points (-104, FanDuel Sportsbook, 0.75U)
Myles Turner 20+ Points (+350, FanDuel Sportsbook, 0.25U)

New York Knicks at Milwaukee Bucks

Current Line – Bucks -5.5, 224
My Projection – Bucks 114, Knicks 111
Key Injuries – RJ Barrett is questionable.

The Milwaukee Bucks should be worried about what’s happening with their defense. It was an odd schedule spot having to go to Toronto for one game, but giving up 130 points to a team averaging 99 points in their other games is scary. The defensive metrics on Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez have dropped from last year, and a big reason for that is the sharp decline in perimeter defense. Jrue Holiday is one of the best defenders in the NBA, and going from him to Damian Lillard is a huge change ability to guard on the perimeter. It’s very early in the season, which means there is time to adjust, but the changes haven’t happened yet. The Knicks are at the end of a week of travel and although they rarely overlook opponents, there could be effects from the physical toll of that stretch. If New York was at home and rested, this would be an interesting spot to back them even at a much different number than we see tonight. As mentioned, the Bucks have struggled defensively, which should mean good games for Jalen Brunson and Immanuel Quickly, but in a bad schedule spot on the road, I’ll pass on the spread and the total. The good news is that the market is still too low on Mitchell Robinson’s rebound props. He’s averaging 14-plus rebounds per game when he plays at least 28 minutes, and Robinson is in line for possibly 35 minutes tonight. The Knicks need his size and rim protection against the Bucks, which means plenty of chances to grab some boards. Let’s bet over 10 and over 14 rebounds.

Bets

Mitchell Robinson 10+ Rebounds (+105, FanDuel Sportsbook, 0.75U)
Mitchell Robinson 14+ Rebounds (+350, FanDuel Sportsbook, 0.25U)

Golden State Warriors at Oklahoma City Thunder

Current Line – Warriors -6, 225
My Projection – Warriors 115, Thunder 107
Key Injuries – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is out. Jaylin Williams is questionable.

One of the most important but most difficult parts of handicapping the NBA is determining the value of each player to the moneyline, spread and total. The impact of superstars can often be overrated, and the impact of secondary players can often be underrated. Friday, we have to figure out what happens to the Oklahoma City Thunder without their best player, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The Thunder have a deep team full of talented players, but SGA is far and away the best offensive player, and he leads them in scoring almost every night. The first impact we see (and thanks to FTN data guru Frank Brank for this): OKC’s offense runs slower by about 1 second per possession. That may not sound like much, but over a full game that’s about 5 fewer possessions. At their offensive rating of 109, that means about 5.5 fewer points. Now, it’s not exactly that linear, we don’t have any data on OKC without SGA, but with Chet Holmgren and opponent plays a big role, but that 1 second per possession difference is meaningful. Speaking of opponent, the Thunder face the Golden State Warriors, who are one of the slowest teams in the league despite playing some quick opponents. Golden State’s injury report is clean, there’s no schedule concerns, and the player they were most worried about guarding is not playing. The Warriors match up very well against the Thunder without SGA. This game should be slow and I’m projecting the Thunder to struggle to score. Let’s be an OKC team total under.