Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Juwan JohnsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Saints vs. Bears
Right now, Juwan Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 19.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 19.5 (-110) after it opened @ 20.5 (-110).
Pros
- The 2nd-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Saints this year (a staggering 65.5 per game on average).
- The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop.
- The Bears defense has been something of pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in football (39.0 per game) this year.
- This year, the weak Bears pass defense has given up a massive 81.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the biggest rate in the NFL.
- As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Chicago’s safety corps has been lousy this year, projecting as the worst in the NFL.
Cons
- With a 7.5-point advantage, the Saints are a massive favorite in this week’s contest, indicating much more of a reliance on running than their typical game plan.
- The leading projections forecast the Saints to call the 7th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.8 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- Juwan Johnson has put up significantly fewer air yards this year (24.0 per game) than he did last year (37.0 per game).
- With a RATE1-RATE2 point drop-off in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive volume) from last year to this one, Juwan Johnson has been featured much less in his offense’s pass attack.
- Juwan Johnson’s 17.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season reflects a noteable drop-off in his pass-catching proficiency over last season’s 32.0 rate.
Projection
THE BLITZ
23
Receiving Yards
23
Receiving Yards
