Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Jake Ferguson from EV Insight

Jake FergusonReceiving Yards

Right now, Jake Ferguson’s receiving yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

The predictive model expects the Cowboys offensive strategy to tilt 4.9% more towards the passing attack than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer now calling the plays.
A throwing game script is suggested by the Cowboys being a -3-point underdog in this week’s contest.
The Eagles defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, compelling opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (41.1 per game) this year.
The leading projections forecast Jake Ferguson to garner 5.1 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile among tight ends.
Jake Ferguson has been much more involved in his offense’s pass attack this year (14.4% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (4.5%).

Cons

At the present time, the 8th-slowest paced team in football (adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Dallas Cowboys.
Jake Ferguson’s possession skills have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 84.5% to 79.5%.
When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Philadelphia’s group of safeties has been terrific this year, grading out as the 8th-best in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
37
Receiving Yards