Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jake FergusonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Eagles vs. Cowboys
Right now, Jake Ferguson’s receiving yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The predictive model expects the Cowboys offensive strategy to tilt 4.9% more towards the passing attack than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer now calling the plays.
- A throwing game script is suggested by the Cowboys being a -3-point underdog in this week’s contest.
- The Eagles defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, compelling opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (41.1 per game) this year.
- The leading projections forecast Jake Ferguson to garner 5.1 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile among tight ends.
- Jake Ferguson has been much more involved in his offense’s pass attack this year (14.4% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (4.5%).
Cons
- At the present time, the 8th-slowest paced team in football (adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Dallas Cowboys.
- Jake Ferguson’s possession skills have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 84.5% to 79.5%.
- When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Philadelphia’s group of safeties has been terrific this year, grading out as the 8th-best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
37
Receiving Yards
37
Receiving Yards
