Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Irv SmithReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Bengals vs. Bills
Right now, Irv Smith’s receiving yards prop is set at 10.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 10.5 (-110) after it opened @ 15.5 (-120).
Pros
- The projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals as the 2nd-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 66.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being called for in this game) usually lead to better passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and reduced run volume.
- Irv Smith Jr. has gone out for fewer passes this season (68.5% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (55.6%).
Cons
- The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing offenses teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (just 33.1 per game) this year.
- Irv Smith Jr. has accumulated far fewer air yards this year (14.0 per game) than he did last year (22.0 per game).
- Irv Smith Jr.’s 15.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season signifies a noteable diminishment in his pass-catching prowess over last season’s 25.0 mark.
- Irv Smith Jr.’s 68.4% Adjusted Catch Rate this season illustrates a noteworthy reduction in his pass-catching talent over last season’s 73.2% rate.
Projection
THE BLITZ
22
Receiving Yards
22
Receiving Yards
