Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Garrett Wilson from EV Insight

Garrett WilsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-120/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 65.5 (-110) after it opened @ 70.5 (-125).

Pros

The Jets will be forced to utilize backup QB Zach Wilson in this week’s game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to have 130.6 plays on offense run: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing teams to attempt the 4th-most passes in football (39.7 per game) this year.
The projections expect Garrett Wilson to accumulate 10.9 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 98th percentile among WRs.

Cons

Our trusted projections expect the New York Jets to be the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 58.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Jets this year (a measly 52.9 per game on average).
In regards to pass-blocking (and the significance it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Jets ranks as the worst in the NFL this year.
Garrett Wilson is positioned as one of the weakest wide receivers in football at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a measly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 1st percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
78
Receiving Yards