Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for DK Metcalf from EV Insight

DK MetcalfReceiving Yards

Right now, DK Metcalf’s receiving yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-101/-135).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 56.5 (-135) after it opened @ 58.5 (-119).

Pros

This week’s spread implies a throwing game script for the Seahawks, who are -5.5-point underdogs.
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Seahawks to pass on 63.0% of their opportunities: the 6th-highest rate among all teams this week.
In terms of a defense’s impact on pace, at 27.60 seconds per play, the model projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 10th-fastest in football (context-neutralized) right now.
Opposing QBs have averaged 40.1 pass attempts per game against the Ravens defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.
With an exceptional 72.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (88th percentile) this year, D.K. Metcalf has been among the leading wide receivers in the game in the NFL.

Cons

This year, the strong Ravens defense has conceded a measly 140.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers: the 8th-best in football.
The Ravens pass defense has exhibited good efficiency versus WRs this year, allowing 6.27 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the fewest in football.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties project as the 2nd-best group of safeties in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
66
Receiving Yards