Week 9 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Roschon Johnson from EV Insight

Roschon JohnsonRushing Yards

Right now, Roschon Johnson’s rushing yards prop is set at 27.5 yards (-109/-125).

The public has bet the OVER up to 27.5 (-109) after it opened @ 26.5 (-109).

Pros

Right now, the most run-oriented team in the league (46.9% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Chicago Bears.
The leading projections forecast Roschon Johnson to be a much bigger part of his team’s run game in this week’s contest (37.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (21.6% in games he has played).
The Bears O-line profiles as the 9th-best in football last year at opening holes for runners.
Roschon Johnson’s rushing effectiveness (4.43 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (76th percentile among RBs).
The Saints defense has produced the 9th-worst efficiency against opposing ground games this year, allowing 4.53 adjusted yards-per-carry.

Cons

The Bears are a giant 9.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
Our trusted projections expect the Bears to call the 9th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.9 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Roschon Johnson comes in as one of the weakest RBs in the NFL at generating extra ground yardage, averaging a measly 1.93 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 20th percentile.
When it comes to the linebackers’ role in defending against the run, New Orleans’s LB corps has been fantastic this year, ranking as the best in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
45
Rushing Yards