Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
DK MetcalfReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Ravens vs. Seahawks
Right now, DK Metcalf’s receiving yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-101/-135).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 56.5 (-135) after it opened @ 58.5 (-119).
Pros
- This week’s spread implies a throwing game script for the Seahawks, who are -5.5-point underdogs.
- Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Seahawks to pass on 63.0% of their opportunities: the 6th-highest rate among all teams this week.
- In terms of a defense’s impact on pace, at 27.60 seconds per play, the model projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 10th-fastest in football (context-neutralized) right now.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 40.1 pass attempts per game against the Ravens defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.
- With an exceptional 72.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (88th percentile) this year, D.K. Metcalf has been among the leading wide receivers in the game in the NFL.
Cons
- This year, the strong Ravens defense has conceded a measly 140.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers: the 8th-best in football.
- The Ravens pass defense has exhibited good efficiency versus WRs this year, allowing 6.27 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the fewest in football.
- The Baltimore Ravens safeties project as the 2nd-best group of safeties in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
66
Receiving Yards
66
Receiving Yards
