Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Davante Adams from EV Insight

Davante AdamsReceiving Yards

Right now, Davante Adams’s receiving yards prop is set at 73.5 yards (-129/-106).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 73.5 (-106) after it opened @ 75.5 (-117).

Pros

The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.
In this game, Davante Adams is expected by the model to slot into the 94th percentile among wideouts with 9.8 targets.
Davante Adams has been a key part of his team’s passing offense, earning a Target Share of 32.9% this year, which puts him in the 98th percentile when it comes to WRs.
Davante Adams has accrued a staggering 121.0 air yards per game this year: 97th percentile among WRs.
When talking about protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Raiders profiles as the best in the league this year.

Cons

The predictive model expects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 58.2% pass rate.
Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Las Vegas Raiders are forecasted by the predictive model to run only 60.4 offensive plays in this contest: the fewest on the slate this week.
The smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Raiders this year (a lowly 52.9 per game on average).
Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Giants, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 33.2 per game) this year.
Davante Adams’s 75.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season reflects a remarkable diminishment in his receiving ability over last season’s 89.0 mark.

Projection

THE BLITZ
82
Receiving Yards