Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Davante AdamsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Raiders vs. Giants
Right now, Davante Adams’s receiving yards prop is set at 73.5 yards (-129/-106).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 73.5 (-106) after it opened @ 75.5 (-117).
Pros
- The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.
- In this game, Davante Adams is expected by the model to slot into the 94th percentile among wideouts with 9.8 targets.
- Davante Adams has been a key part of his team’s passing offense, earning a Target Share of 32.9% this year, which puts him in the 98th percentile when it comes to WRs.
- Davante Adams has accrued a staggering 121.0 air yards per game this year: 97th percentile among WRs.
- When talking about protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Raiders profiles as the best in the league this year.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 58.2% pass rate.
- Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Las Vegas Raiders are forecasted by the predictive model to run only 60.4 offensive plays in this contest: the fewest on the slate this week.
- The smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Raiders this year (a lowly 52.9 per game on average).
- Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Giants, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 33.2 per game) this year.
- Davante Adams’s 75.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season reflects a remarkable diminishment in his receiving ability over last season’s 89.0 mark.
Projection
THE BLITZ
82
Receiving Yards
82
Receiving Yards
