Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dalton SchultzReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Texans vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Dalton Schultz’s receiving yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet the OVER up to 39.5 (+100) after it opened @ 37.5 (-110).
Pros
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to have 131.3 total plays run: the 2nd-most among all games this week.
- The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 6th-most in football.
- In this game, Dalton Schultz is predicted by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 89th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.7 targets.
- When talking about air yards, Dalton Schultz ranks in the lofty 92nd percentile among tight ends this year, accruing a staggering 40.0 per game.
Cons
- The Houston Texans have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The model projects the Texans to be the 8th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 55.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- Dalton Schultz’s 31.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season illustrates a noteworthy drop-off in his receiving prowess over last season’s 38.0 figure.
- With a feeble 63.9% Adjusted Catch% (22nd percentile) this year, Dalton Schultz rates among the most hard-handed receivers in football among TEs.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has allowed the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (65.1%) versus TEs this year (65.1%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
37
Receiving Yards
37
Receiving Yards
