Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Dalton Kincaid from EV Insight

Dalton KincaidReceiving Yards

Right now, Dalton Kincaid’s receiving yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 40.5 (-110) after it opened @ 38.5 (-110).

Pros

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills to pass on 63.4% of their downs: the 5th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
This week, Dalton Kincaid is anticipated by the predictive model to rank in the 96th percentile among TEs with 6.6 targets.
The leading projections forecast Dalton Kincaid to be a more important option in his offense’s passing game this week (19.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (13.8% in games he has played).
The Buffalo offensive line grades out as the 3rd-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Dalton Kincaid grades out as one of the top pass-game tight ends this year, averaging a fantastic 37.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 84th percentile.

Cons

The predictive model expects the Bills to run the 2nd-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 60.5 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Cincinnati Bengals, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 33.3 per game) this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
47
Receiving Yards