Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dalton KincaidReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Bengals vs. Bills
Right now, Dalton Kincaid’s receiving yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 40.5 (-110) after it opened @ 38.5 (-110).
Pros
- Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills to pass on 63.4% of their downs: the 5th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
- This week, Dalton Kincaid is anticipated by the predictive model to rank in the 96th percentile among TEs with 6.6 targets.
- The leading projections forecast Dalton Kincaid to be a more important option in his offense’s passing game this week (19.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (13.8% in games he has played).
- The Buffalo offensive line grades out as the 3rd-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
- Dalton Kincaid grades out as one of the top pass-game tight ends this year, averaging a fantastic 37.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 84th percentile.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Bills to run the 2nd-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 60.5 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Cincinnati Bengals, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 33.3 per game) this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
47
Receiving Yards
47
Receiving Yards
