Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
D.J. MooreReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Saints vs. Bears
Right now, D.J. Moore’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Bears are a giant 9.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- With an extraordinary 95.4% Route% (96th percentile) this year, D.J. Moore ranks among the wide receivers with the most usage in football.
- In this week’s game, D.J. Moore is anticipated by our trusted projection set to secure a spot in the 91st percentile when it comes to WRs with 8.8 targets.
- D.J. Moore’s 82.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year signifies a meaningful boost in his receiving ability over last year’s 49.0 mark.
Cons
- Our trusted projections expect the Chicago Bears as the 9th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 56.0% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- Our trusted projections expect the Bears to call the 9th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.9 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- The Chicago O-line profiles as the 10th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing game stats across the board.
- The Saints pass defense has yielded the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (59.6%) vs. wideouts this year (59.6%).
- The Saints pass defense has shown good efficiency against WRs this year, conceding 7.00 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-fewest in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
71
Receiving Yards
71
Receiving Yards
