Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Cole KmetReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Saints vs. Bears
Right now, Cole Kmet’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 30.5 (-120) after it opened @ 31.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Bears are a giant 9.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- The model projects Cole Kmet to accumulate 5.9 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 90th percentile among TEs.
- Cole Kmet has notched a colossal 29.0 air yards per game this year: 83rd percentile among tight ends.
- Cole Kmet’s 49.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year shows a noteworthy boost in his pass-catching proficiency over last year’s 32.0 figure.
Cons
- Our trusted projections expect the Chicago Bears as the 9th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 56.0% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- Our trusted projections expect the Bears to call the 9th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.9 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- Cole Kmet’s 36.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 42.0.
- The Chicago O-line profiles as the 10th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing game stats across the board.
- The Saints pass defense has allowed the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (61.6%) versus tight ends this year (61.6%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
42
Receiving Yards
42
Receiving Yards
