Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Cole Kmet from EV Insight

Cole KmetReceiving Yards

Right now, Cole Kmet’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 30.5 (-120) after it opened @ 31.5 (-115).

Pros

The Bears are a giant 9.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The model projects Cole Kmet to accumulate 5.9 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 90th percentile among TEs.
Cole Kmet has notched a colossal 29.0 air yards per game this year: 83rd percentile among tight ends.
Cole Kmet’s 49.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year shows a noteworthy boost in his pass-catching proficiency over last year’s 32.0 figure.

Cons

Our trusted projections expect the Chicago Bears as the 9th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 56.0% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the Bears to call the 9th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.9 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
Cole Kmet’s 36.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 42.0.
The Chicago O-line profiles as the 10th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing game stats across the board.
The Saints pass defense has allowed the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (61.6%) versus tight ends this year (61.6%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
42
Receiving Yards