Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Christian Watson from EV Insight

Christian WatsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Christian Watson’s receiving yards prop is set at 41.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 41.5 (-110) after it opened @ 40.5 (-114).

Pros

The Packers rank as the 9th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) this year with a 63.5% pass rate.
After averaging 66.0 air yards per game last season, Christian Watson has seen a big uptick this season, now averaging 101.0 per game.
Christian Watson’s 51.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 41.6.
Christian Watson’s 3.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season illustrates a substantial improvement in his efficiency in picking up extra yardage over last season’s 0.0% figure.
The Rams linebackers rank as the worst LB corps in the league this year in pass coverage.

Cons

A running game script is suggested by the Packers being a 3.5-point favorite in this game.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Packers are predicted by the projections to call only 62.0 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-lowest number on the slate this week.
The 6th-lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Green Bay Packers this year (just 53.9 per game on average).
Christian Watson’s 33.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year reflects a significant reduction in his receiving skills over last year’s 43.0 figure.
The Rams pass defense has conceded the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (56.5%) versus wideouts this year (56.5%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
47
Receiving Yards