NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Christian WatsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Packers vs. Rams
Right now, Christian Watson’s receiving yards prop is set at 41.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 41.5 (-110) after it opened @ 40.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Packers rank as the 9th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) this year with a 63.5% pass rate.
- After averaging 66.0 air yards per game last season, Christian Watson has seen a big uptick this season, now averaging 101.0 per game.
- Christian Watson’s 51.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 41.6.
- Christian Watson’s 3.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season illustrates a substantial improvement in his efficiency in picking up extra yardage over last season’s 0.0% figure.
- The Rams linebackers rank as the worst LB corps in the league this year in pass coverage.
Cons
- A running game script is suggested by the Packers being a 3.5-point favorite in this game.
- Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Packers are predicted by the projections to call only 62.0 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-lowest number on the slate this week.
- The 6th-lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Green Bay Packers this year (just 53.9 per game on average).
- Christian Watson’s 33.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year reflects a significant reduction in his receiving skills over last year’s 43.0 figure.
- The Rams pass defense has conceded the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (56.5%) versus wideouts this year (56.5%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
47
Receiving Yards
47
Receiving Yards
