Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Chris OlaveReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Saints vs. Bears
Right now, Chris Olave’s receiving yards prop is set at 63.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 63.5 (-110) after it opened @ 60.5 (-114).
Pros
- The 2nd-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Saints this year (a staggering 65.5 per game on average).
- The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop.
- The Bears defense has been something of pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in football (39.0 per game) this year.
- In this week’s game, Chris Olave is anticipated by the predictive model to find himself in the 88th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 8.5 targets.
- After averaging 114.0 air yards per game last season, Chris Olave has made big progress this season, currently pacing 135.0 per game.
Cons
- With a 9.5-point advantage, the Saints are a massive favorite in this week’s contest, indicating much more of a reliance on running than their typical game plan.
- The leading projections forecast this game to have the 4th-fewest plays run among all games this week at 128.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- When it comes to pass protection (and the significance it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the New Orleans Saints profiles as the 5th-worst in football this year.
- Chris Olave’s 55.6% Adjusted Completion Rate this year indicates a noteworthy diminishment in his receiving prowess over last year’s 60.1% mark.
- Chris Olave’s pass-catching effectiveness has diminished this year, notching just 6.82 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 8.44 figure last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
74
Receiving Yards
74
Receiving Yards
