Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
CeeDee LambReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Eagles vs. Cowboys
Right now, CeeDee Lamb’s receiving yards prop is set at 78.5 yards (-127/-108).
The public has bet the OVER up to 78.5 (-127) after it opened @ 75.5 (-119).
Pros
- The predictive model expects the Cowboys offensive strategy to tilt 4.9% more towards the passing attack than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer now calling the plays.
- A throwing game script is suggested by the Cowboys being a -3-point underdog in this week’s contest.
- The Eagles defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, compelling opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (41.1 per game) this year.
- In this game, CeeDee Lamb is projected by the model to find himself in the 92nd percentile when it comes to wideouts with 9.1 targets.
- With a stellar 89.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (95th percentile) this year, CeeDee Lamb stands among the best wide receivers in the game in football.
Cons
- At the present time, the 8th-slowest paced team in football (adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Dallas Cowboys.
- CeeDee Lamb has posted quite a few less air yards this season (79.0 per game) than he did last season (94.0 per game).
- With a RATE1-RATE2 point reduction in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive usage) from last season to this one, CeeDee Lamb has been featured much less in his offense’s pass attack.
- This year, the daunting Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has given up the 2nd-least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing WRs: a meager 2.8 YAC.
Projection
THE BLITZ
78
Receiving Yards
78
Receiving Yards
