Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Cade OttonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Texans vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Cade Otton’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 25.5 (-110) after it opened @ 27.5 (-114).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 8th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 61.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are predicted by the model to call 65.4 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Cade Otton has run fewer routes this year (85.1% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last year (63.9%).
- This year, the porous Houston Texans defense has given up a colossal 58.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing tight ends: the 5th-most in the league.
Cons
- The model projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive blueprint to lean 3.9% more towards the rushing attack than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.
- The 9th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Buccaneers this year (just 56.7 per game on average).
- With a lackluster 5.9 adjusted yards per target (22nd percentile) this year, Cade Otton ranks as one of the weakest TE receiving threats in the league.
- Cade Otton comes in as one of the worst TEs in football at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 2nd percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards
31
Receiving Yards
