Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Cade Otton from EV Insight

Cade OttonReceiving Yards

Right now, Cade Otton’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 25.5 (-110) after it opened @ 27.5 (-114).

Pros

Our trusted projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 8th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 61.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are predicted by the model to call 65.4 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Cade Otton has run fewer routes this year (85.1% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last year (63.9%).
This year, the porous Houston Texans defense has given up a colossal 58.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing tight ends: the 5th-most in the league.

Cons

The model projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive blueprint to lean 3.9% more towards the rushing attack than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.
The 9th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Buccaneers this year (just 56.7 per game on average).
With a lackluster 5.9 adjusted yards per target (22nd percentile) this year, Cade Otton ranks as one of the weakest TE receiving threats in the league.
Cade Otton comes in as one of the worst TEs in football at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 2nd percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards