Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Amon-Ra St. Brown from EV Insight

Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving Yards

Right now, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 72.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 72.5 (-110) after it opened @ 70.5 (-115).

Pros

The Lions are a 4-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to earn 10.5 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 96th percentile among WRs.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been among the best wide receivers in the league this year, averaging a stellar 57.0 yards per game while checking in at the 83rd percentile.
Amon-Ra St. Brown’s ability to generate extra yardage has been refined this season, totaling 8.31 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a mere 3.24 mark last season.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 10th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 59.3% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.1 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in the NFL.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (69.5% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (83.0%).
Amon-Ra St. Brown has totaled far fewer air yards this season (44.0 per game) than he did last season (50.0 per game).

Projection

THE BLITZ
86
Receiving Yards