Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Geno SmithPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Cardinals vs. Seahawks
Right now, Geno Smith’s passing yards prop is set at 253.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the OVER up to 253.5 (-105) after it opened @ 247.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
- The Seattle Seahawks offensive line grades out as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
- Geno Smith’s passing precision has gotten better this season, with his Completion% jumping from 68.8% to 72.3%.
Cons
- The Seattle Seahawks have called the 4th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 53.9 plays per game.
- The Arizona Cardinals defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
- The Seattle Seahawks have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Seattle Seahawks have gone for it on 4th down a measly 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in the league), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
- The Seattle Seahawks have utilized motion in their offense on 28.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (5th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.
Projection
THE BLITZ
288
Passing Yards
288
Passing Yards
