NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
D.J. MooreReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Bengals vs. Panthers
Right now, D.J. Moore’s receiving yards prop is set at 63.5 yards (-113/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 63.5 (-115) after it opened @ 66.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers will be forced to utilize backup quarterback PJ Walker in this week’s contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The Panthers are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects D.J. Moore to notch 9.7 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 95th percentile among WRs.
- The Carolina Panthers O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
- D.J. Moore’s ability to pick up extra yardage has improved this season, totaling 5.15 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a measly 4.04 figure last season.
Cons
- The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 7th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 56.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Carolina Panthers have called the 3rd-least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 53.6 plays per game.
- The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.43 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
72
Receiving Yards
72
Receiving Yards
