Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Amari CooperReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Browns vs. Cardinals
Right now, Amari Cooper’s receiving yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-125/-109).
The public has bet the OVER up to 56.5 (-125) after it opened @ 56.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Browns have run the most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 66.1 plays per game.
- The projections expect Amari Cooper to total 7.2 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 81st percentile among wideouts.
- After accumulating 96.0 air yards per game last year, Amari Cooper has undergone big improvement this year, currently pacing 113.0 per game.
- Amari Cooper’s 65.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the league leaders: 90th percentile for wideouts.
- The Browns O-line profiles as the 9th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
Cons
- This game’s spread implies an extreme rushing game script for the Browns, who are heavily favored by 13.5 points.
- Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cleveland Browns to pass on 48.4% of their plays: the lowest rate on the slate this week.
- Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see only 128.2 offensive plays run: the 5th-lowest number out of all the games this week.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 33.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Cardinals defense this year: 8th-fewest in football.
- Amari Cooper’s ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate shrinking from 64.9% to 54.5%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
60
Receiving Yards
60
Receiving Yards
