Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Adam ThielenReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Panthers vs. Colts
Right now, Adam Thielen’s receiving yards prop is set at 68.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 68.5 (-110) after it opened @ 66.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 6.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to see 133.0 total plays called: the most out of all the games this week.
- The Panthers have called the 4th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 63.4 plays per game.
- Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being called for in this game) generally correlate with better passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume.
- Adam Thielen has put up substantially more adjusted receiving yards per game (88.0) this season than he did last season (47.0).
Cons
- The Carolina O-line ranks as the 2nd-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
84
Receiving Yards
84
Receiving Yards
