Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
A.J. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Eagles vs. Cowboys
Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 86.5 yards (-139/+102).
The public has bet the OVER up to 86.5 (-139) after it opened @ 79.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Eagles feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Johnson, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.0% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may decline.
- In this game, A.J. Brown is projected by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 95th percentile among wideouts with 9.9 targets.
- After accumulating 104.0 air yards per game last year, A.J. Brown has seen marked improvement this year, now sitting at 135.0 per game.
- A.J. Brown has notched many more adjusted receiving yards per game (112.0) this year than he did last year (80.0).
Cons
- A running game script is indicated by the Eagles being a 3-point favorite in this week’s game.
- At the moment, the 6th-slowest paced offense in football (in a neutral context) according to the model is the Eagles.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game versus the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: fewest in football.
- The Dallas Cowboys defense has yielded the 2nd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 117.0) vs. wide receivers this year.
- This year, the fierce Cowboys defense has allowed a feeble 53.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the 2nd-lowest rate in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
90
Receiving Yards
90
Receiving Yards
