Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for A.J. Brown from EV Insight

A.J. BrownReceiving Yards

Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 86.5 yards (-139/+102).

The public has bet the OVER up to 86.5 (-139) after it opened @ 79.5 (-115).

Pros

The Eagles feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Johnson, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.0% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may decline.
In this game, A.J. Brown is projected by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 95th percentile among wideouts with 9.9 targets.
After accumulating 104.0 air yards per game last year, A.J. Brown has seen marked improvement this year, now sitting at 135.0 per game.
A.J. Brown has notched many more adjusted receiving yards per game (112.0) this year than he did last year (80.0).

Cons

A running game script is indicated by the Eagles being a 3-point favorite in this week’s game.
At the moment, the 6th-slowest paced offense in football (in a neutral context) according to the model is the Eagles.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game versus the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: fewest in football.
The Dallas Cowboys defense has yielded the 2nd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 117.0) vs. wide receivers this year.
This year, the fierce Cowboys defense has allowed a feeble 53.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the 2nd-lowest rate in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
90
Receiving Yards