Week 9 Player Props: Passing Yards for Tom Brady from EV Insight

Tom BradyPassing Yards

Right now, Tom Brady’s passing yards prop is set at 270.5 yards (-103/-133).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 270.5 (-133) after it opened @ 272.5 (-130).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 67.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 61.4 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Tom Brady to attempt 42.7 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the most of all QBs.
Tom Brady has been among the best quarterbacks in football this year, averaging a stellar 289.0 yards per game while checking in at the 89th percentile.

Cons

The Buccaneers are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 29.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 3rd-least in the league.
Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 6th-least yards in football (just 209.0 per game) versus the Los Angeles Rams defense this year.
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has displayed strong efficiency this year, giving up 7.55 yards-per-target: the 9th-least in the league.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has given their QB a measly 2.30 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
307
Passing Yards