Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tom BradyPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Buccaneers vs. Rams
Right now, Tom Brady’s passing yards prop is set at 270.5 yards (-103/-133).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 270.5 (-133) after it opened @ 272.5 (-130).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 67.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 61.4 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Tom Brady to attempt 42.7 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the most of all QBs.
- Tom Brady has been among the best quarterbacks in football this year, averaging a stellar 289.0 yards per game while checking in at the 89th percentile.
Cons
- The Buccaneers are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
- Opposing teams have averaged 29.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 3rd-least in the league.
- Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 6th-least yards in football (just 209.0 per game) versus the Los Angeles Rams defense this year.
- The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has displayed strong efficiency this year, giving up 7.55 yards-per-target: the 9th-least in the league.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has given their QB a measly 2.30 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
307
Passing Yards
307
Passing Yards
