Week 9 Player Props: Passing Yards for Sam Howell from EV Insight

Sam HowellPassing Yards

Right now, Sam Howell’s passing yards prop is set at 251.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 251.5 (-115) after it opened @ 247.5 (-115).

Pros

The predictive model expects the Washington Commanders offensive gameplan to lean 13.9% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy now calling the plays.
The predictive model expects the Commanders as the 3rd-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 64.9% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast Sam Howell to throw 37.8 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 5th-most out of all QBs.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 9th-most in football.
Sam Howell ranks as one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL this year, averaging an exceptional 273.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 89th percentile.

Cons

The predictive model expects the Commanders to run the 8th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.65 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-fewest in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
256
Passing Yards