Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Sam HowellPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Patriots vs. Commanders
Right now, Sam Howell’s passing yards prop is set at 251.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 251.5 (-115) after it opened @ 247.5 (-115).
Pros
- The predictive model expects the Washington Commanders offensive gameplan to lean 13.9% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy now calling the plays.
- The predictive model expects the Commanders as the 3rd-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 64.9% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- The leading projections forecast Sam Howell to throw 37.8 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 5th-most out of all QBs.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 9th-most in football.
- Sam Howell ranks as one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL this year, averaging an exceptional 273.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 89th percentile.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Commanders to run the 8th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- The New England Patriots defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.65 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-fewest in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
256
Passing Yards
256
Passing Yards
