Week 9 Player Props: Passing Yards for Lamar Jackson from EV Insight

Lamar JacksonPassing Yards

Right now, Lamar Jackson’s passing yards prop is set at 224.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

The Ravens have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 3.2% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 6th-most in football.
The Baltimore Ravens O-line grades out as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Lamar Jackson has thrown for many more adjusted yards per game (219.0) this year than he did last year (191.0).
Lamar Jackson’s passing precision has improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 62.9% to 71.3%.

Cons

The Ravens are a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
The model projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 2nd-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 50.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Right now, the 2nd-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Baltimore Ravens.
The leading projections forecast Lamar Jackson to attempt 29.8 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 3rd-fewest out of all QBs.
The Seattle cornerbacks profile as the 4th-best CB corps in football this year in pass coverage.

Projection

THE BLITZ
210
Passing Yards