Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Lamar JacksonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Ravens vs. Seahawks
Right now, Lamar Jackson’s passing yards prop is set at 224.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Ravens have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 3.2% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 6th-most in football.
- The Baltimore Ravens O-line grades out as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
- Lamar Jackson has thrown for many more adjusted yards per game (219.0) this year than he did last year (191.0).
- Lamar Jackson’s passing precision has improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 62.9% to 71.3%.
Cons
- The Ravens are a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- The model projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 2nd-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 50.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Right now, the 2nd-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Baltimore Ravens.
- The leading projections forecast Lamar Jackson to attempt 29.8 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 3rd-fewest out of all QBs.
- The Seattle cornerbacks profile as the 4th-best CB corps in football this year in pass coverage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
210
Passing Yards
210
Passing Yards
