Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Josh AllenPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Bengals vs. Bills
Right now, Josh Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 272.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 272.5 (-110) after it opened @ 267.5 (-110).
Pros
- Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills to pass on 63.4% of their downs: the 5th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
- Josh Allen has attempted 37.1 throws per game this year, ranking in the 81st percentile among QBs.
- The Buffalo offensive line grades out as the 3rd-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
- Josh Allen comes in as one of the leading QBs in football this year, averaging a terrific 286.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 95th percentile.
- Josh Allen’s 72.8% Adjusted Completion% this season indicates a meaningful improvement in his throwing precision over last season’s 64.2% figure.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Bills to run the 2nd-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 60.5 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Cincinnati Bengals, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 33.3 per game) this year.
- This year, the stout Cincinnati Bengals defense has allowed the 8th-least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing teams: a mere 4.7 YAC.
Projection
THE BLITZ
291
Passing Yards
291
Passing Yards
